Big Important Things – risk and opportunity identification

30 11 2007

“Big Important Things” (BITs),  are local, regional, national or international circumstances or events that cannot be controlled or prevented, that have a significant effect on current and future business practices.

One should always keep in mind the impact of the “Big Important Things” (BITs) on the supply chain, customers, the competition and your industry.

Those involved in strategy and planning must understand how BITs create enormous risks and opportunities.

One can only react to BITs, they cannot be created or eliminated by an organization.

BITs would include, but not be limited to:

  • Natural and man made disasters – hurricanes, fires, earthquakes, explosions, flooding.
  • Massive economic changes – depression, recession, inflation, currency devaluation, massive layoffs
  • War and Terrorism – security measures, logistics, international trade limitations
  • Government policies – trade barriers, laws and regulations, economic sanctions, embargoes
  • New technologies, – trends and tendencies inside and outside of the industry
  • Environmental or health issues – contamination, unsafe products, epidemics
  • Legal issues – pending or current lawsuits, documentation and reporting, legal precedents
  • Significant global changes in demand or supply – shortages, increased demand
  • Energy costs – trends and tendencies

Contingency plans should be created, worst-case and best-case scenarios developed, and efforts made to lower the risk profile or strategically position the company to take advantage of possible changes in the business environment.

How to use BITs to identify areas of risk and opportunity 

  1. Analyze each of the following elements independently;  strategic raw materials, suppliers, logistics, major customers, the competition, your company, and finally your industry (local, national and internationally).
  2. What is the probability that a BIT would affect each element (impossible, low, medium, high, inevitable) and when (short-medium-long term)?  “My supplier is the only manufacturer in North America of the widgets we need, they are located on the western Florida coast and annually are affected to some degree my hurricanes and flooding.  There is a high probability that a major hurricane will hit them in the short to medium term.”
  3. Use a “what if” line of questioning for those high risk or high impact areas.  “What if a major hurricane hit my supplier and disrupted their production?
  4. What are possible scenarios to reduce your risk, or take advantage of the opportunity.  “Do I have alternative suppliers in place, extra inventory, insurance, how can I protect my customers, who else will this affect and how?
  5. Review this process at least twice a year to take into account changes in the probability of the BITs and modify the contingency plans or strategies accordingly.

Related Links

Analyze and Plan Using 7 Simple Questions

How to Systematically Analyze Any Situation for Better Decision Making

9 Steps to Better Decisions

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Commoditization, is it happening to you?

28 11 2007

“We are living in an era where there are too many retailers serving too few customers and where there is no longer any brand loyalty or retail loyalty” Kevin Burke, President/CEO. The American Apparel and Footwear Association.

From this comment by Mr. Burke I believe the apparel and footwear industries are in the midst of an important struggle, to move away from their current status of a commodity business.

The winners will be those with strong design, distinct brand, and smart developed distribution systems. The same can be said for almost any current industry.

Too many retailers and points of sale? I doubt it. What I interpret from this comment is that there is intense competition between retailers, and instead of seeking exclusivity or innovation to attract and maintain customers, they are using the oldest,simplest trick known….lowering product prices and with it, the quality of the shopping experience.

It is a classic example of commoditization.

Manufacturers are also to blame. The rush to sell their product to high volume buyers insures loss of control of the marketing and retail channels.

The rush to sell everywhere, to everyone, at the same time allows and promotes price competition and price wars between the various manufacturers and retailers.

Too few customers? The real problem is overproduction. Current manufacturing focuses on high volume production and this encourages the standardization of product. The desire to reduce fixed costs drives manufacturers to seek out cheap world labor, increase productivity through mechanization (which encourages product standardization) and the outcome is a mountain of finished products, created all over the world, that are indistinguishable from one another.

Commodities. Most apparel and footwear companies focus on low cost, high volume manufacturing, they sell to wholesalers or retailers that also focus on volume. So suddenly branded products can be found in department stores, boutiques, grocery stores, flea markets and the Internet. The product is everywhere, consumers have learned that one should just look for it where the price is lowest.

This also makes it easier to pirate and sell a product to a growing network of sales outlets focused on offering a brand name for less.

No brand or retail loyalty?
If there is no customer loyalty (read as no perceived advantage to shopping with you versus the competition), and loyalty is important for continued growth, profit and success, then it’s time for a serious reevaluation of how one is doing business.

How can one stand out from the crowd, do something different and unique, and create a sense of exclusivity and prestige for the consumer?

This is the future.

Related Links

The easy way

10 top reasons for poor customer service and their solutions

Give this away

Are you listening to what the customer needs?





New is a requirement

20 06 2007

We are creatures of habit.

We enjoy and feel comfortable with a routine.

We create routines in our personal and professional lives constantly.

We wake up around the same time, go to work at an appointed hour, drink coffee at a scheduled time.

We tend to focus and concentrate on our specific career area, and in doing so are excluding influences and relationships that matter.

New and different influences and relationships that can dramatically change the way we work, feel and create.

Even our free time is scheduled and programmed.

We read the same papers, watch the same programs, go out at the same time, and surround ourselves with the same people and experiences.

In order to maintain interest and excitement in our professional and personal lives we need to learn, experience or add something New.

Turn the microscopic view of our lives into a telescopic view and look for the New relationships and New elements of influence.

We can’t change, innovate, modify, evolve and grow if we don’t have access to New.

New ideas.

New learning.

New skills.

New methods.

New relationships.

New challenges.

New does not seep into us by accident, it requires active participation on our part.

We must seek it out, experiment, and take chances.

Find it, analyze it, embrace it or reject it.

New does not always make us happy, in fact it can create conflicts and anxiety which ultimately lead to better definition of what we want, or what we are doing.

We can find New in books, magazines, web logs, articles, especially if they are unrelated to our current business.

New can be found by taking a different route to work, shopping in a different area, eating different foods or in different spaces.

New can be found in any person whom we haven’t had a conversation with.

We have to make the conscious decision to break our routines and seek out New.

When was the last time you encountered something New?

When will be the next time?

What can we do today to find New?

When creating our weekly agenda, keeping in mind that we must dedicate time to actively seeking experiences and information that are outside of our comfort zones and areas of expertise.

Find something New today.

Start a list, when you find something New write it down.

Encourage the people around us to discover and share something New.

Watch how New begins to change your life and decisions, enthusiasm and attitude.

Related Links

5 ways to promote creative thinking and idea generation

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Can’t make a decision?

23 05 2007

 There are times our decision-making is stalled due to fear of making the wrong decision.

Next time you’re in that indecisive state of mind, answer these questions and see if it pushes any buttons to move the process forward.

  1. What is the “best case”desired outcome?  Will your decision move you toward that outcome?
  2. What is an “acceptable” outcome?
  3. What is the worst thing that could possible happen if you make the “wrong” decision?  Can you accept this?
  4. Is your decision reversible?
  5. Will a wrong decision destroy value, confidence or trust of anyone involved?
  6. Do you have enough information to make the decision?
  7. Do you have too much information?
  8. Who knows more about this subject than you….what are their recommendations?
  9. Are you the right person to be making this decision?
  10. Will avoiding making a decision now make the situation better, worse or have no effect?
  11. Does the decision provide a short term fix or will it solve the problem permanently (long term)?

Related Links

How to systematically analyze any situation for better decision making

Why don’t they?

9 steps to better decisions





The point of no return

18 01 2007

The hardest part of decision making is passing the “point of no return“.

While the situation is being analyzed we’re safe.

Wacky, imaginative and wild solutions can be discussed and their impact and effect weighed and discussed. But it’s theoretical, it’s safe.

The minute we have to make the decision, take responsibility for the action and outcome, then we enter into scary territory.

The key to decision making is to get the momentum, confidence, courage and motivation in order to pass the point of no return.

I’m not saying that your decision will always be correct. But what is important is to make a decision and not spend hours, days and weeks agonized and postponing the process and decision.

Picture yourself on a diving board. High above the water. It’s scary to think that you may not perform the dive perfectly. A belly flop would be embarrassing and painful.

There are three options available.

  1. Stay where you are, agonizing over the decision to jump.
  2. Go back down the ladder, let someone else jump.
  3. Jump.  Leave the diving board, cross the point of no return, make the dive.

When we are sure of our abilities and understanding due to good research and experience, we have confidence.

When we are not afraid of making a mistake, we have courage.

When we know the decision is important and necessary in order to keep things moving and get on with other activities, then we are motivated.

Focus on the task and problem, create the solutions and make the decisions on time.

Push yourself to pass the point of no return quickly and with confidence.

Jump.

Related Links

Why do we fail

Motivation – Heroic Moments

Decision-making, how they used to do it 400 BC

How to systematically analyze any situation for better decision making





Why do we fail

22 12 2006

No one likes to fail.

We can feel foolish, outmaneuvered, incompetent, insecure, unlucky, silly, angry, overwhelmed, frustrated and in some cases afraid to try again. after suffering a defeat.

Failure is an integral part of the learning process.

Failure is required in order to become successful.

Rare is the successful individual, product or organization that has not met adversity, failure, defeat and loss.

One of the keys to success is the ability to accept failure, learn from the experience and try again.

The fear of failure is so great in some organizations that it freezes innovation, thwarts change and stifles growth.

Organizations try to reduce or limit failure by passing on historically successful methods and accumulated knowledge to new members.

Many times this information is not useful and out of date because the elements, players and dynamics of today’s challenges are quite different from those of the past.

Use the following list to analyze your current projects (and possibly prevent or limit failure), or use the list after a setback or defeat to identify where you can improve.

Reasons for business failure can be broken into 4 main groups:

Planning

  • No plan
  • Incomplete plan
  • Wrong calculations
  • Poor or incomplete interpretation of data and research
  • Failure to take into account all factors
  • Lack of experience
  • Failure to evaluate competitor reactions correctly
  • Failure to anticipate consumer response
  • Significant difference between planned and actual costs
  • Poor cash flow calculations
  • Unrealistic goals and expected outcomes
  • Underestimate risks

Information

  • Didn’t collect all the pertinent information for planning
  • Product or service was not wanted or needed by customer
  • Lack of knowledge of market
  • Lack of knowledge of customers
  • Lack of experience in the industry
  • Lack of experience in manufacturing
  • Lack of experience in sales and marketing
  • Lack of experience in administration

Operations and Follow-through

  • Lazy, didn’t do the work required
  • Undisciplined
  • Unorganized
  • No control of suppliers
  • Did not stop in time and take corrective actions
  • Did not recognize warning signs
  • Ignored warning signs
  • Did not seek professional assistance
  • Lack of attention to logistics details
  • Failure to focus on customers needs, desires and wants
  • Poorly trained personnel
  • Lack of initial capital
  • Not enough capital to maintain operations for first years

Factors outside of our control

  • Important changes in technology
  • Environmental factors
  • International, Federal, State or local government laws, regulations and legislation
  • Aggressive competitor(s)
  • Act of God
  • Change in fashion and trends
  • Theft and fraud

Related Links

Leadership lesson – A Message to Garcia

How to systematically analyze any decision for better decision making

10 things you should never do on a Friday afternoon

9 steps to better decisions





Sourcing and supply chain strategy – Mexico

16 11 2006

Purchasing from Mexico and Mexican suppliers?

Don Gringo at Catemaco News and Commentary brought these items to our attention.

Sourcing in Mexico gets easier.  The article points out that doing business with Mexico is easier than in the past.

  • The proximity of Mexico to the US markets impacts communication, logistics, costs and time factors.
  • Mexico has a history of dealing with the US, and are familiar with competitive manufacturing techniques.
  • Relationships are critical to success.
  • Beware of stereotypes.
  • Take the time to find the “right” partner.
  • Do’s and don’ts for doing business in Mexico

Does your supply chain strategy include Mexico?  It should.  Al Brown president of SupplyMex writes that Mexico offers:

  • Logistics infrastructure, highways, rail and port system that has been improved over the past 10 years.
  • Free trade agreements with 42 countries.
  • Global production and quality standards.
  • Stable political and economic environment.
  • Skilled workforce.

Thanks Don.
Related Links

Purchasing.com

Why you should pay attention to free-trade treaties 

Maquiladoras in Mexico

Industrial and Business Parks in Mexico